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- Bitcoin’s bear market is similar to 2018, with experts believing that optimistic estimates assume two months of sideways price action.
- BTC could then start the next bull market, but pessimistic estimates suggest the sideways move will continue for eight months.
- Analysts believe the $17,600 level is key to Bitcoin’s uptrend and have set a target for the asset at $20,000.
Bitcoin’s bear market in the current cycle is similar to BTC’s trend in cryptocurrencies during the winter of 2018. The pessimistic outlook means Bitcoin’s sideways price action will continue for eight months.
Also read: Bitcoin Attracts Mega Whales With New Moves, Finds Support At $16,800 Levels
Bitcoin price may level off two months before breakout
Bitcoin, the asset with the largest market capitalization, is currently in a long-term downtrend on the monthly chart. Jiang Zhuoer, CEO and co-founder of bitcoin mining pool BTC.TOP, said that starting with the previous Bitcoin (BTC) all-time high (ATH) and ending with the next halving, BTC will reach 2014 and 2014. It said it crossed the bottom of the bear market in 2018. Respectively.
Zhuoer argues that if Bitcoin’s price hits a trough in 2022 and an FTX event pushes the price to $15,476, all three bear markets would have taken a similar amount of time from the previous ATH to the trough. . His 4-year half-life, leading to the 4-year cycle law, still seems relevant.
Based on our observations of market sentiment, this is the last bear market sideways period. Events like the bankruptcy of a digital currency group are already priced in and will no longer have a significant impact on prices.
Optimistic estimates therefore suggest that the current bear market and the 2018 bear market are similar, with Bitcoin price flattening out for another two months before BTC’s next bull market. may become.
Zhuoer believes the pessimistic estimates point to an eight-month flat run before BTC recovers, similar to the 2014 bear market.
Why Analysts Think $17,600 Is Key To Bitcoin Price Rally?
Crypto analyst and trader CryptoGodJohn considers Bitcoin price key to $17,600 level.If BTC flips $17,600 level, bulls could target $20,000 level Experts believe that a failure to break out of $17,600 could invalidate his bullish claims and send BTC price back to $15,500.
$17,600 is the most important level for me $BTC
Don’t be surprised if $17,600 moves toward $20,000
Reject $15.5 Likely to Revisit
— Johnny (@CryptoGodJohn) January 9, 2023
Where Is Bitcoin Price Heading?
Bitcoin price is in an ascending channel and is about to break out of the uptrend line. If the uptrend then accelerates, a rally to the target of $17,369, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the channel high, is likely. The bulls may target the $17,448 levels. However, such breakouts from an ascending channel often indicate “irrational exuberance” and may foreshadow a fatigue peak blowout move prior to a sharp downturn reversal. Therefore, traders should act with caution.
BTC/USDT price chart
Based on the chart above, the asset has beaten the 200-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. This is also a bullish sign. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is currently reading 75.71, indicating that Bitcoin is overbought. This suggests that the bulls should refrain from adding more longs to their positions. However, if the RSI breaks below 70 and enters the neutral area again, it would be a sign that the trader might consider letting go of his long position and starting short instead.
A drop below the lower trendline of the ascending channel completely invalidates the bullish thesis and suggests deeper losses are coming.
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