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2022 is coming to an end. NewsBTC staff decided to launch this crypto holiday special to provide perspective on the crypto industry. We speak to several guests to understand the highs and lows of cryptocurrencies this year.
In the spirit of Charles Dicken’s classic A Christmas Carol, we look at cryptocurrency from different angles, see its possible trajectory towards 2023, and explore the different industries that could underpin the future of finance. Find common ground in views.
Spilotro: “Cryptocurrency is a nascent technology and has historically been relatively unaffected by rate cycles. I’m following the rules of the system.”
To wrap up this series, our in-house guest editorial director, Tony SpilotroDedicated to spreading his knowledge and tools to all who will listen intently, Tony is a market leader by promoting critical thinking, going against the crowd, and developing a systematic approach to trading. is monitoring.
Spilotro: “I’m sure the mainstream media is terribly wrong. In fact, the ‘magazine cover index’ is one of the most proven ways to pick tops and bottoms in the stock market.” ”
Tony is a proponent of the Elliott Wave Theory and has fully explained the price trajectory of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies since the early 2010s. The market is critically about to follow his path, but which way will it go?This is what he told us:
Q: What are the most important differences for the cryptocurrency market today compared to Christmas 2021? Has it changed? Are penetration and liquidity declining? Are the fundamentals still valid?
A: The biggest difference between now and then is macro conditions and money flow. The Fed’s tightening has done the trick, capturing a bull market, so to speak. Ned Davis Research has a rule of “Don’t fight the Fed” and it proved true last year with Plus. Since cryptocurrencies are nascent technology, they have been relatively unaffected by interest rate cycles so far. But it has become such a big part of the financial system that it now follows the rules of that system more than the community likes. The industry has been severely hit by the domino effect over the past few months, compounded by the collapse of LUNA and the debacle of FTX. However, I feel that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are fundamentally strong. Considering how rough many stocks have been, it’s remarkable how well such a speculative asset class has held up. While my belief in Bitcoin remains unwavering, investor enthusiasm will continue to rise and fall.
Q: What is the dominant narrative driving this shift in market conditions, and what should be the narrative today? What do many people overlook? We have seen massive crypto exchange failures, hedge funds that were considered unruly, and ecosystems that promised a financial utopia. Are cryptocurrencies still the future of finance, or should the community pursue a new vision?
A: For me, time moves the story. The market will find the story when the time is right. The final narrative is Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and it performed horribly during the highest inflation in years. increase. The following narrative is overly euphoric and can ultimately be destroyed when the emotional train shifts. Cryptography is an early technology that has barely scratched the surface of what is possible. Even the Internet is in its early stages of design compared to highway systems and railroads. By comparison, Crypto is a newborn. As with the Internet before it, when people don’t fully understand it, they are more likely to fall prey to larger market sentiments and narratives. The dotcom bubble is a perfect example. Like every other time Bitcoin was claimed dead, it does nothing but shake non-believers and suck up those who are ready to believe. Sadly, financial utopia lies ahead I don’t think there is Rather, Bitcoin is the best way to preserve ownership over value. I think it will be the digital version of money in a mattress.
Q: If you had to pick one, what do you think will be the key moment for cryptocurrency in 2022, and will the industry feel the impact during 2023? Where will the industry be next Christmas? Do you think it will survive this winter? Mainstream is once again declaring the death of the industry. Will they finally get it right?
A: The most important moment for cryptocurrencies in 2022 had to be the FTX situation, but some might argue that it never happened if it weren’t for the collapse of LUNA that preceded it. . I think the industry will feel the impact of Fallout very strongly in the years to come and beyond. Regulation needs to be wiped out and many shitcoins wiped from existence. Rules will be put in place so that businesses cannot raise capital like FTT tokens. Some innovation will stifle, especially around DeFi and Ethereum. The basics of scarcity and strong network usage are decoupled from the rest of the crypto. I believe the mainstream media is terribly wrong. In fact, the “magazine cover indicator” is he one of the most proven ways to pick tops and bottoms in the stock market. Emotions usually go to extremes when the mainstream media begins to cover it extensively.
Q: What are the most important metrics to watch in 2022? What metrics are you tracking into 2023? I know you do a lot of your analysis based on Elliott Wave theory. According to this theory, what can market participants expect next year?
A: The best indicator for 2022 was the weekly Ichimoku cloud. The moment BTCUSD broke out of the Ichimoku cloud, the bulls went out, followed by a significant drop. Indeed, this happened after Bitcoin’s value dropped somewhat. I should have paid more attention to this, especially after seeing how Bitcoin behaved after it lost its cloud in March 2020. And, more importantly, extreme emotions.
I’m a big contrarian in general and use the nickname Tony ‘Bull’ so I’m bullish on BTC overall. If the crowd is bearish, I feel safer with the bullish and vice versa. That said, I am bullish on BTC’s final rally. I have been building a position for two years.
When everyone gets bullish again and hits new ridiculous highs, I will temporarily retire Tony “The Bull” and look to the biggest bears in cryptocurrency.
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