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Kyiv and its military forces are less than a month away (February 3rd) from the midpoint between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. Towards winter, Russian President Vladimir Putin began pursuing a two-pronged approach to reviving the stalled Ukraine war. Weaponizing winter against civilians across Europe. , “Trying to Freeze [the] Ukraine conflict. As for the latter, Putin is unwittingly taking sides with the Biden administration.
Since the war began, we and others have asked President Biden to overcome his pervasive “escalation paralysis” and develop the strategies necessary for Ukraine to defend itself and expel Russian forces from its territories, including Crimea. has repeatedly called for its full military equipment and capabilities. To date, the Biden administration has failed to heed relentless calls from former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, including those stating that “time is not on Ukraine’s side.”
Time may or may not be on the Ukrainian side. Former U.S. Army Europe commander, retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, strongly believes so, pushing back strongly against Rice and Gates, tweeting:nonsense! In any case, winter will at least freeze the conflict “as is” and give Moscow time to reorganize, resupply and put into battle its newly mobilized, albeit poorly trained and led, army. In that respect, it works against Kyiv. The heavy fighting in and around Bakhmut and Soledar is ample evidence of a frozen front, reminiscent of the trench warfare carnage of World War II.
Hodges supported the conversion of the Ukrainian High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), armed with long-range munitions such as the ATACMS, to break the winter stalemate in Donbass decisively in favor of Kyiv. ing. However, Biden’s general “enough” doctrine strategy and an amendment limiting his US-provided use of his HIMARS to less than 50 miles from where he is is hindering this. Thus, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is competitive in the fight against Putin, but lacks the necessary weaponry and ammunition range to shape the fight and set the conditions for an outright victory over Russia. ing. Biden has contained the battlefield within Ukraine’s borders, handicapping Zelensky.
This begs the question of why Biden adheres to an almost purgatorial approach to the war in Ukraine. I have made it clear that This is where Mr. Biden made it clear when he rejected an offer to evacuate the United States that “we need ammunition, not vehicles.” Moreover, Biden has allowed the war to escalate into an “eternal war” at the cost of many lives and treasures, which is particularly disconcerting given his stated reasons for the withdrawal from Afghanistan. there is It undermines Russia, but at the expense of Ukraine.
Also, the question is why Biden appears to be afraid of a Kyiv victory, and why, intentionally or not, is he allowing Putin to freeze the battlefield in favor of Moscow. I also raise. Ukraine is not afraid of victory, as its military strength demonstrated in the recapture of Kharkov, Kherson and now Bakhmut. Ukrainian civilians we interviewed, including 4-year-old Darina, her 10-year-old brother Ivan, and mother Katerina, also confronted Putin’s drone attacks in Kyiv every day and used cold bomb shelters during school hours. I use a flashlight in , but dancing and fencing by candlelight in the evenings to maintain a normal level of childhood.
Especially since Russian General Sergei Slovikin assumed overall command in Ukraine in October, Russia has been slowly adapting to military tactics and strategies in Kiev, and has been forced into Kyiv by Biden and Washington’s NATO allies. Western weapons are beginning to tactically understand the range limits imposed on them. seems to be rearranged to
As a result, Biden’s rule would allow Ukraine to launch a symbolic drone strike using old Russian weapons against Engels-2 Air Force Base, located within 600 kilometers of Russia, to prevent Russian forces from using battlefield tactics or operational were exposed to opportunistic attacks due to insufficient security of Both produce casualties and headlines, but neither will win the war.
Biden and NATO must stop imposing unheard-of “rules of the game” on Kyiv. Because civilian centers in Kyiv and people like Darina, Ivan, Katerina are under attack. Handicapping Ukraine in this way encourages and empowers Russia to continue its ruthless bombing, thereby prolonging the war and human suffering.
If Ukraine wins, the war cannot be confined to Ukraine’s borders. It must be extended to Russia, Belarus, the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, wherever Russian combatants launch their attacks. The military objectives of the Kremlin are airfields, launch sites for cruise missiles and drones, ammunition and supply depots, railway transport lines, barracks, regional and district headquarters of operations.
Putin does not stand still. Neither can Biden. The Kremlin has announced that Moscow is working to build his 1.5 million army and that in 2023 Russia will increase its defense spending by 50%. But just as Ukraine attacked a Russian military base in occupied Makyivka, Donetsk province, there is now a target-rich opportunity if Biden only releases Zelensky and lets them go after them. Over 400 Russian soldiers were reportedly killed.
Too much respect is being paid to Putin and Russia and their possible reactions. The West seems more concerned about what Russia might do than what it is doing now. Whether intentional or not, Biden’s military policy toward Ukraine limits the ability of Zelensky and Kyiv to shape and win the battlefield of this war. Freezing the same battlefield is unconscionable and unacceptable. By doing so, Moscow will be able to build combat power.
As Ukraine fights for the country’s survival in the dead of winter, the time has long passed for Biden to fully recognize and accept what General George S. Patton understood long ago. Artillery wins wars. ‘ If ‘Old Blood and Guts’ were alive today, he would be yelling at Biden, ‘Kudos to HIMARS and hand over the ATACMS ammunition. Patton is not. So, out of respect, I will. Freeze President Putin, unfreeze this battlefield and equip Kyiv with what it takes for Ukraine to win decisively.
Mark Toth is a retired economist, historian, and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing, and international commerce. He is a former officer of the World Trade Center in St. Louis and has lived in US diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg and Nagoya. follow him on twitter @MCTothSTL.
Retired Army Colonel Jonathan Sweet served as a military intelligence officer for 30 years. His background includes service in the 101st Airborne Division and Information Security Command. From his 2012 to 2014 he headed the U.S. European Command’s Intelligence Operations Division, working with his NATO partners in the Black and Baltic Seas. follow him on twitter @JE Sweet2022.
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