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Editor’s Note: Lara Setrakian is a journalist and director of the Applied Policy Institute based in Yerevan, Armenia. Follow her on her Twitter. @LaraThe views expressed here are her own. Read more opinions on CNN.
CNN
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After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its devastating humanitarian impact, forcing Moscow into a peacemaker role would be a giant leap. But that’s exactly what happened in one corner of the world.
In the wake of the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia was left to broker a ceasefire and check both sides. The United States and the European Union, which once played balanced roles in the South Caucasus, have effectively withdrawn from active diplomacy, leaving Russia to act as the sole intermediary. Moscow has placed peacekeepers on the ground to calm and monitor the situation.
But outsourcing peacebuilding to Russia was a bad idea. Now, in the shadow of the Ukraine war, its policies are enabling another humanitarian catastrophe, jeopardizing Western interests in the region.
There is no effective mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan as Russia weakens in Ukraine. Azerbaijan has used its vast oil and gas wealth to seek maximum dominance in the field. Now, according to experts, protesters backed by the Azerbaijan government have blocked the Rachin Corridor, the main road connecting some 120,000 ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh with the outside world. Azeri political analysts say protests are illegal in Azerbaijan without government approval.
Incoming supplies have been severely restricted since the lockdown began on December 12, 2022. Grocery stores are rationing food, fresh fruits and vegetables are scarce, and medical supplies are in dire need, he said in late December. Azerbaijan says the blockade is in response to mining activity in Armenian-controlled areas. However, rather than bring the matter to international arbitration, we have decided to block incoming calls until conditions are met. This violates international and humanitarian law.
The Armenians I met in Nagorno-Karabakh are warm-hearted people with deep cultural identity and deep Christian faith. Even in the dire days of crisis, some tried to make it look like a Christmas holiday to their families.Stuck in Nagorno-Karabakh, his Dr. said to show signs of chronic stress. UNICEF has warned that children are lacking basic food items and essential services, and some children have been separated from their parents and legal guardians on the other side of roads that have been blocked. .
“People’s number one concern is keeping their children warm and fed,” Skudian said in a phone interview. She explained how people survive by helping each other. She said, “If a mother has two of hers and only one has formula, she will share the formula with the other woman and give some more breast milk.”
More than a dozen countries, including the United States, the European Union, the United Nations Secretary General, and Canada and Mexico, called on Azerbaijan to lift the blockade on the road to Nagorno-Karabakh, but those calls were ignored. sees it as a strategy to starve them or force them out of the disputed enclave.
Russia has failed to make any significant moves to resolve this issue. But it is also reluctant for Western countries to intervene to resolve the stalemate. Prefer to be a local mainstay and use the resulting influence to advance local interests.
A web of economic and strategic factors has linked Moscow to Turkey and its ally Azerbaijan. As Russia faces sanctions from the West and strained relations with many economic partners, Moscow has become increasingly dependent on Turkey for trade and sanctions evasion. It has become a major facilitator of gas exports and strategic technology imports, many of which are banned by Western countries.
As relations between Russia and Turkey have grown closer, Russia has become reluctant to criticize Azerbaijan’s actions. This can quickly escalate the situation to more serious and fatal consequences. As in the early days of the Srebrenica massacre, international peacekeepers failed to act before thousands of people lost their lives. It also sets a dangerous precedent for future conflicts, suffocating rival communities by cutting off supplies, with one side either forcing evacuation or accepting negotiated terms.
Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute, which keeps a close watch on the region, told me he worries about the risk of ethnic cleansing if the world powers leave the situation unchecked and indifferent. rice field.
“The first problem is how to get diplomatic and military observers into Nagorno-Karabakh,” Rubin said. “Genocide happens in the dark. If we can shine a light on this area, we can often pre-empt the worst consequences.”
The United States is not helpless in this situation. We can push forward humanitarian airlifts to bring supplies to communities in Nagorno-Karabakh or call for further action from the UN Security Council, which will meet on 20 December to discuss the situation. The United States also has direct influence over Turkey and Azerbaijan with which it can use its stack of diplomatic and economic tools to stabilize the situation.
“When the Trump administration imposed steel sanctions on Turkey for the release of Reverend Andrew Branson, it put a lot of pressure on Turkey. [Turkish President] Erdogan,” Rubin said. “Why should I be against doing it in Nagorno-Karabakh?”
Russia and Turkey have sought to dominate the South Caucasus at the expense of their smaller neighbors. increase. It is cast as a battle for democracy against authoritarianism as the West competes with Russia over Ukraine.
The more Russia and Turkey dominate the situation, the harder it will be for the Western powers to restore balance. In other words, stabilizing the South Caucasus will become more expensive over time.The United States and her EU have wisely entrusted Russia with maintaining peace in the South Caucasus. The West must now intervene with all its might to right the wrongs.
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