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Editor’s note: Aaron David Miller is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of The End of Greatness: Why America Can’t Have (and Does’t Want) Another Great President. Miller has been a Middle East negotiator in Democratic and Republican administrations. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinions on CNN.
CNN
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Just one week into Israel’s most radical government in history, controversial National Security Minister Itamar Ben Guvir has already shown right-wing religious and nationalist credentials.
On Tuesday, Ben Guvir visited the Jerusalem complex, known to Jews as the Temple Mount and to Muslims as the Haram al-Sharif.
Ben Guvir, previously convicted of racist incitement, has vowed to institutionalize Jewish prayer and presence in perhaps the most volatile flashpoint in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Its stated purpose was to commemorate one of the Jewish fast days.
The visit sparked a series of international condemnation, including from the US Embassy in Jerusalem, which said in a short statement that such behavior was “unacceptable.”
Ben Guvir, a longtime provocateur and successor to the party of extremist rabbi Meir Kahane, is now in charge of the Israeli police force, and is responsible for killing Jerusalem and Israel’s Arab and Jewish citizens. It puts him in a position of influence that causes problems between them.
But if you think the Biden administration is gearing up for a sustained campaign that actively opposes the direction Netanyahu’s new government is taking, you should lie down and wait quietly for that sentiment to pass. is.
To govern is to choose. And while the battle may still come, US President Joe Biden will go to great lengths to avoid confrontation with newly elected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. to introduce.
First, Biden is supernaturally pro-Israel.
The President of the United States may have once said to Netanyahu: “Bibi, I disagree with what you say, but I love you.” , is the country of Israel.
Mr. Biden’s involvement in Israel spans decades. He has long been fascinated by the Israeli mindset and has a deep awareness and respect for the realities of Israel’s security challenges. If you’re looking for a model for a president when it comes to dealing with Israel, the one that comes to mind isn’t Biden’s former boss Barack Obama, but former President Bill Clinton. The importance of supporting Israel politically runs deep.
As far as Netanyahu is concerned, Biden is well aware of the prime minister’s strengths and limitations. After the humiliation of Netanyahu’s government announcing a massive expansion of housing in East Jerusalem during a visit as Vice President in 2010, Biden clearly doesn’t trust him.
At the same time, he knows that Netanyahu is, for better or worse, a political survivor and a highly talented politician who has been part of Israel’s story for decades. .
Biden believes, perhaps erroneously, that if he wants any chance of achieving anything in the region, he must find a way to deal with him. Like Clinton, his first instinct is not to sabotage Netanyahu, but to give him the benefit of the doubt and try to settle things quietly without public controversy.
In fact, it’s no coincidence that, in congratulating Netanyahu’s new administration, Biden mentioned the fact that they’ve been friends for decades.
Second, Biden is too busy.
Fighting Israel requires the president’s time and energy. Biden’s foreign policy is already riddled with problems for which there are no quick and easy solutions. His administration’s top foreign policy priorities are Russia’s war on Ukraine and how to deal with China. And then there are nuclear threats from both North Korea and Iran.
These are challenges that define his presidency far more than the Middle East, which the administration rightfully deprioritized. In a region riddled with political and security landmines, the focus is on management rather than problem solving. And I try to keep as many issues as possible off the topic of the president.
Mr. Biden took a risk on an ill-fated “fist-pumping” trip to Saudi Arabia last July. He gave Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman what he wanted: recognition. And in return, he essentially slapped him in the face. Gas prices soared, Saudi Arabia and Russia dominated, and the OPEC+ cartels severely cut production two weeks before the midterm elections.
Third, Biden knows that fighting Israel is bad politics.
Republicans dominate the House and are one step behind Democrats in the Senate. The White House campaign won’t officially end until 2024. But it will start this year. Whether Mr. Biden runs or not, the Israeli issue will always be a political one.
With the exception of a few outliers like Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, the Republican Party has established itself as the go-to party in Israel. And given that Netanyahu is an honorary member of the Republican Party, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he finds a way to brawl with Republicans, as he did during the Obama administration.
If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee, I have no doubt they will come up with ways to tussle with each other. and the Democratic Party splitting into a traditional Israeli majority and a progressive minority pushing the administration to hold Israel to the blame. Treatment of Palestinians.
If the Iran nuclear deal reemerges (even Israelis believe it’s not done yet), Biden will be caught between Republicans and a minority of Democrats who vehemently oppose US re-entry. The Israeli prime minister instigates, if not leads, the band.
Fourth, Biden knows the Palestinian issue is not ready to go into full swing.
The president does not actively seek to fight close allies even when US interests and values may be beginning to diverge on some key issues. , is unlikely to give Mr. Biden much incentive because it has little chance of producing results.
A two-state solution faces unimaginably long odds, even if it’s not dead and down the Dodo’s path. The best Biden can hope to do is prevent an explosion of tensions between Israel and Palestine. That includes drawing a line against Israel’s legal annexation. It preempts another round of escalation, such as May 2021, between Israel and Hamas to prevent the Abrahamic Accords countries from flying ships if there is a persistent conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
A key ingredient needed for anything that resembles a credible negotiating process at all is a leader on each side with the will and ability to make important decisions and bring voters along. They no longer exist.
Fifth, Biden sees Iran as a higher priority.
The Palestinian issue is unstable. But the real danger for Biden isn’t a two-state solution, but how to contain Iran’s nuclear program. The issue could lead to regional conflicts, rising oil prices and plunging financial markets. And even though Iran is now enriching uranium to near-weapon-grade levels, there seems little hope of a return to the nuclear deal.
Biden knows that Netanyahu’s bar for taking military action against Iran is much lower than the United States’. And the US president is trying to coordinate with Netanyahu on Iran rather than hunt him down, hoping to find a way to deter Iran without using military force.
What Biden is unlikely to do is put himself in a situation where he and Netanyahu are at odds in both Iran and Palestine. I watched you do You probably never want to go down that road again.
There are reports that the administration will send National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to Israel this month. This suggests that Biden wants to get ahead of any kind of confrontation with Netanyahu, and we believe that perhaps we can gain a better understanding on some key issues.
Netanyahu doesn’t want to fight Biden. Now he owes the extremist coalition more than Washington. Without these partners, Netanyahu will be unable to pass the legislation needed to postpone or nullify his corruption trial. Perhaps he believes he can control an extremist cabinet. And that’s the case with the administration – he needs help doing so.
Paradoxically, Washington’s harsh statements may actually help Netanyahu do so. But the administration also needs to understand that words alone are not enough, especially when the views of Netanyahu’s extremist coalition partners translate into action.
Without influencing provocative Israeli actions in Jerusalem and the West Bank, and without lobbying Palestinians to curb terrorism and violence, Biden is likely already full – before his first term ends. It would bring yet another crisis to the current situation.
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