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Financial Markets Analyst at Shore Capital peter ashworth We are cautiously optimistic this year.
2022 ended with a whine rather than the Santa rally we were hoping for. The FTSE 100 continues its rise since mid-October, ending the year “flat”. In 2022, the market has absorbed his nine interest rate hikes, 10.7% inflation (close to a 40-year high), and his 0.3% drop in GDP in the third quarter of 2022.
Against this backdrop, the outlook for 2023 looks better as interest rates are expected to peak and inflation is expected to fall. With less tight valuations, we enter the new year with a brighter outlook. I would like to keep one resolution.
Network Rail Chief Negotiator: Trading Within “Touching Distance”
Tim ShovelerA chief negotiator for Network Rail, which maintains and operates the tracks, he is optimistic that a deal could be reached in the long-running rail dispute between unions led by RMT and Network Rail. Speaking to BBC Radio 4 today, he said:
What we want to tell RMT is that we know which areas some staff and their members are misunderstanding. We would like to work with RMT to clarify where there were misunderstandings so that the issue can be resolved. I will deal with it again.
Only the 2,000 people who voted ‘no’ last night will need to change their votes and the deal will pass, so we think it’s within reach.
Meanwhile, RMT’s boss Mick LynchPickets at London’s Euston station this morning again accused the government of sabotaging the deal.
Investors should prepare for another turbulent year
Graham Warden
With central banks battling inflation, China reopening its economy after Covid-19 restrictions, and the Ukraine war pushing the global economy toward recession, investors should prepare for a turbulent year in financial markets. Economists warn.
The first half of the new year is likely to be volatile after global markets suffered the biggest drop since the 2008 financial crisis last year, according to Wall Street forecasts.
However, the US S&P 500 is expected to be slightly higher at the end of 2023 than it was at the beginning of the year. The average target for his 22 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg is his S&P 500 at the end of 2023 at 4,078 points, about 6% higher than at the end of 2022.
Economists expect the US Federal Reserve to slow its rate hikes this year as the outlook for the US economy deteriorates. U.S. inflation has fallen from its peak last summer, and his string of Fed rate hikes in 2022 is also cooling the housing market.
“We believe the risk of a recession is high as a period of sub-trend growth is inevitable and the belated effects of monetary tightening will work across the economy,” he said. Brian RoseSenior US Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management.
Most UK train services will cease to function as 5-day strike begins
gwyn topham
Britain’s rail strikes are also continuing, with tens of thousands of rail workers out and about today as disputes over wages, employment and working conditions remain unresolved. Our transport correspondent Gwyn Topham reports:
The first day of a five-day national rail strike has begun, with much of the UK rail network shut down, leaving minimal services for commuters on city and intercity lines.
Passengers were urged to attempt trips only when necessary, and about 20% of trains were expected to operate, with operating hours reduced from 7:30am to 6:30pm.
Members of Network Rail’s Rail, Maritime and Transport union and 14 rail operators are on strike for two 48-hour periods on Tuesdays and Fridays.
A signaling staff of 40,000 RMT members on strike has forced many of the railroads in the less populated areas of Wales, Scotland and England to go out of business altogether, and the frequency of service has generally been reduced to one train an hour on the main routes. will be
The latest action does not appear to be an immediate solution to the long-running dispute over wages, employment and working conditions on railroads. Unions said on Monday that the railroad company was “desperate” over the government’s handling of the wage dispute.
Mick LynchThe RMT general secretary said there had been “radio silence” from the government since the mid-December meeting.
Introduction: Chinese factory decline intensifies.Economists say Britain faces worst recession in G7
Good morning. Welcome to our rolling coverage of business, financial markets and the global economy.
The new year started with a warning from the head of the International Monetary Fund. Kristalina GeorgievaWith one-third of the global economy in recession this year, 2023 is projected to be even tougher than last year. An economist warns that the UK is facing the worst and longest recession among her G7 countries.
An annual survey of leading UK-based economists by the Financial Times (a poll of 101 analysts) found that a clear majority supported the Covid pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. An inflationary shock caused by the UK has said it will last longer elsewhere in the UK, with banks keeping interest rates high and the government tightening fiscal policy. More than four-fifths believe the UK economy is already contracting and the UK lags behind other major economies.
John PhilpotAn independent labor market economist told the FT:
A recession in 2023 will feel much worse than the economic fallout of the pandemic.
In China, factory activity plummeted in December After Beijing lifted most Covid restrictions, a surge in Covid infections disrupted production and dampened demand, according to a study.
The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49 in December from 49.4 in November. It has been below the 50 dividing growth and contraction for five months. It was the lowest level since September, but slightly better than expected. China’s larger official PMIM survey on Saturday showed a much sharper contraction, with the activity index plunging to its lowest level in almost three years.
The first week of the year will also see the minutes of the final US Federal Reserve meeting (Wednesday), US employment figures on Friday and the OPEC oil cartel.
Some Asian stock markets saw Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gain 1.6%, the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 0.9% and Japan closed for the holiday. However, the Australian market fell his 1.3% and South Korea Kospi fell his 0.3%.
Naeem AslamChief Market Analyst at trading platform AvaTrade said:
2023 began with a further escalation in tensions between Russia and Ukraine as a missile attack on a Russian military installation in occupied Ukrainian territory killed 63 soldiers. more likely to have an aggressive reaction. Overall, it doesn’t look like 2023 started with a decline in tensions between the two countries, and after the current incident, it’s likely that things will actually get worse before they get better.
agenda
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8:55 AM GMT: German December Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 15,000, Rate 5.6%)
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9:30am GMT: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final for December (Forecast: 44.7)
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1pm GTM: German inflation for Dec (forecast: 9.1%)
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2.45pm GMT: US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Finals for December
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