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Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer
Against the Bears in Week 18, the Vikings didn’t need to win in the end, but Kirk Cousins was great, a game he played to win in case the higher seeds failed.
He set season highs for expected points added per attempt (+0.76), success rate (70%), YPA (11.3) and completion rate (85%). He completed 17 of his 20 passes for his 225 yards with zero sacks and zero QB hits.
And while this seems like a harbinger of going into the playoffs, I have concerns.
Beyond the simple fact that the Bears were playing with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, the Bears had two distinct warnings.
The Bears had below average man coverage this year. They also blitzed at the sixth lowest rate (17%) and recorded the NFL’s lowest pressure rate (22%).
That’s not what Kirk Cousins faces when he faces the Giants this week.
New York has the highest blitz rate (45%) in the NFL and ranks 10th in pressure rate (34%).
And from Week 10 to Week 17 (ignoring the meaningless Week 18 game), the Giants ranked #1 in blitz percentage and #4 in pressure percentage.
In 20 attempts against the Bears last week, Cousins faced man coverage just twice. He had 0 yards in his 1-of-2, -0.92 EPA/att, and a 0% success rate.
Cousins makes a big split for male coverage when he’s blitzed as opposed to when he’s not blitzed.
Blitz time: -0.07 EPA/att, 29% success, 4.8 YPA, 14/32 (44% comp)
Not blitzed: +0.22 EPA/att, 45% success, 7.6 YPA, 30/48 (63% comp)
Kirk Cousins and Vikings offense dominate Bears in Week 18
Kirk Cousins was able to get over 220 yards as the Vikings blew the Bears out in the regular season finale.
A positive view is that the Vikings play in their home dome instead of on the outdoor roads.
In Week 16 against the Giants, the last game he played at home, Cousins averaged the third-lowest YPA in a home game (6.2, surpassed only by the Cowboys-Jets game), absorbing 11 while averaging four runs. I took the sack. QB hits, season 2nd.
Kirk Cousins should absolutely hope to be able to carry over some positives from his performance against the Bears to close out the season, but against the Giants’ very different defense, he’s far more likely to win. It is very likely that it will be a tough sled.
Mac Jones Almost ruined the Bills season finale
Buffalo was a magical place on a Sunday afternoon. It started before the opening kickoff to celebrate Dummer Hamlin’s recovery, but came off in incredible fashion on the first kickoff as the Bills quickly took a 7-0 lead from him.
However, while the Bills pulled off a stunning 35-23 win that evoked excitement from players to fans and crowds across the country, the final score could have been much different.
Take out Mac Jones’ interception thrown at the Bills’ 2-yard line and two picks Jones threw into the end zone, and you have a potential 28-point swing.
In addition to these huge plays, let’s see exactly what Mac Jones did in this game.
He posted a 56% shooting percentage, ranking fourth among all QBs this week. Showing 21-of-31 for 5.6 yards in one try was certainly not a good thing, but one of the worst offenses in the NFL was just 12 drives against the Bills. He punts 4 times and was just 5 points behind on 10 runs. A few minutes left in the 4th quarter.
If Jones throws just one interception instead of two, or if the Bills return just one TD instead of two, the Patriots have a very good chance of winning the game and making it into the playoffs themselves.
Buffalo recorded the win and secured the AFC’s No. 2 seed, but concerns relate to their playoff berth. Technically, the Bills’ defense played a top 10 offensive schedule, but later in the season, the schedule was full with and without offense.
- No. 26 Patriots 2 times
- No.25 Jets 2 times
- No.27 Bears
- No.20 Viking
- No.8 Browns
- No.7 Dolphins
- 6th Lions
In two of these games against an above-average offense, the Bills ran into trouble late and were lucky enough to close out the game with a win. Explore similarities:
The Dolphins led 29-21 with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter to clinch the win by three points before the Bills kicked the game-winning field goal.
The Lions led 22–19 with ten minutes left in the fourth quarter, and the score was tied before the Bills kicked the game-winning field goal with two seconds left to win by three.
The fact that the Bills have only played three above-average offenses since Week 8 and barely won two of them doesn’t inspire much confidence in their defense.
Which quarterback did the Bills face this season?
Yes, they saw very few decent quarterbacks earlier this year. But not many since then.
Bills give Patriots a magical win, but pass defense is a concern in playoffs
Nick Wright is still worried about Buffalo’s pass defense, despite the potential for a lighter matchup (if Tua Tagovailoa is out). Watch as Nick analyzes the Bills’ problems heading into the postseason.
The Buffaloes will face the injury-less Dolphins on Sunday as the 10.5-point favorites.
But soon after, this defense will likely face Joe Burrow and, eventually, Patrick Mahomes.
The Buffalo offense will need to shoulder the defense. This is because they do not trust this unit against the elite groups they are likely to face.
Why early down efficiency is so important in modern football
14 teams advanced to the playoffs. Earlier in the year, all 14 playoff qualifiers ranked within the top 17 in EPA/Play.
Only three teams made it into the EPA’s top 17, playing aggressively in the early downs but not making the playoffs. Of the three teams that did not qualify but ranked in the top 17, two were his two bottom-ranked teams in the NFC, the Packers and the Lions.
In addition to overall early down efficiency, bypassing third down by converting first down to early down is also a key measure of efficiency.
Also, 11 of the 13 teams with the highest first-down conversion rate in the early downs are playoff teams. The only teams ranked outside the top 13 in early down first down conversion rate were the Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Chargers.
The coaching carousel is already spinning. Over the next few days, more coaches will be laid off and others will be hired to replace them. Ownership should be focused on recruiting candidates who understand how to win in modern times. And inevitably, his two biggest factors in winning games are early down efficiency and explosiveness. Finding the best way to combine these two aggressive concepts correlates to winning more than any metric other than turnovers.
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Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of his Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises, but previously he has also contributed to the likes of ESPN and He’s The Ringer. He studied engineering before using statistical acumen to create predictive soccer models. You can follow Warren on Twitter. @sharp football.
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