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In 2022, the world has taken a dangerous turn.
With a full-blown war erupting in Europe and widely considered unimaginable just a few years ago, relations between China and the United States are at their lowest in decades, largely due to differences over Taiwan. plummeted to a level. And as if these deployments weren’t enough, threats from North Korea and Iran have become increasingly menacing as their nuclear and missile programs advance. In addition, many humanitarian crises around the world, including the Horn of Africa, Afghanistan, Yemen, Haiti and Myanmar, show no signs of abating.
All of this raises questions about what the US should be most worried about next year. An unparalleled set of global interests and security efforts should cause the United States to be concerned about harmful deployments in many places. But resources are finite, and busy policymakers have limited bandwidth to not only manage ongoing crises, but to avert potential new crises. In other words, you have to make difficult choices.
For the past 15 years, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has sought to help US policymakers make these difficult decisions. Unlike most year-end forecasts, which usually list growing concerns according to what they think is most likely to occur, the CFR polled hundreds of American foreign policy experts to find out what they think the next 12 months will bring. Evaluate the likelihood of 30 plausible contingencies. When It could affect US interests. The results are then combined to classify contingencies into his three tiers of relative priority for US policymakers.
So what are the main takeaways for 2023? Three stand out.
First, the risk of a major military conflict between the United States and either Russia or China, perhaps both at the same time, is a major concern for U.S. foreign policy experts. It replaced the casualty attack. For the first time in 15 years, a contingency like 9/11 wasn’t deemed plausible enough to enter his 2023 investigation. Highly devastating cyberattacks targeting critical U.S. infrastructure by state or non-state actors are currently the number one homeland security concern, leading to drug trafficking-related violence and violence in Mexico and the Central The potential for unregulated migration continues as a result of instability in America.
Second, the ongoing Ukraine conflict and growing disagreements over Taiwan represent the most worrying flashpoints involving nuclear powers, but they are not the only ones. An additional six contingencies that could occur in 2023 could possibly lead to the use of nuclear weapons. Rising political instability in Russia, new conflicts on the Korean Peninsula, clashes between Israel and Iran, the war between India and Pakistan, and the conflict between the United States and China. The South China Sea, and further border skirmishes involving China and India. While none were deemed “very likely” by survey respondents, it’s still chilling that a few were rated as equally likely to occur.
Third, despite the clear focus on the growing risks of great power war and nuclear proliferation, the majority of conflict-related threats around the world are still caused by poor governance and state fragility. is included. The impact of climate change and other environment-related stressors is growing, as seen in the Sahel, Somalia and Central America.
But judging by the findings, conflicts of this kind are not viewed with the same level of concern as just a few years ago, despite their unmitigated humanitarian impact. In fact, most of the contingencies identified in the 2023 survey are No. 1 to the United States, including Libya, Haiti and Mozambique, three of which the Biden administration chose for special attention and long-term U.S. foreign aid. It has been determined to be a priority of 3. Global Fragility Act of 2019 (GFA).
Identifying what to worry about in 2023 is probably the easy part. Deliberately mitigating risk is a much more difficult task. Careful planning and preparation, guided by high levels of involvement, can accomplish a lot to avoid the worst. Given what is at stake now, no one can doubt that the effort is essential.
Paul B. Stairs is a Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention to General John Vesey and Director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of Preventive Engagement: How America Can Avoid War, Stay Strong, and Keep the Peace.follow him@Paul B Stares.
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