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Russian President Vladimir Putin loves attention. He got some with the surprise announcement of a 36-hour “truce”, saying his troops would not engage in war with Ukraine this weekend, out of respect for Russian Orthodox Christmas.
why? Good public diplomacy is respecting a religious leader’s request. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church recently asked Putin to cease fire so that the army could have time to pray.Many Orthodox Christians living in Russia and Ukraine celebrate Christmas on January 6 and 7. President Putin is engaging in propaganda tactics under the guise of generosity as public opinion speaks out against the war in Ukraine that has claimed the lives of countless Russians.
Thirty-six hours isn’t a long time, but it does give Putin’s forces a chance to regroup, given what they’ve lost recently in attacks on Russian airbases by resilient Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian military has recently been replenished with US and NATO equipment, including Russian drones that crippled Ukraine’s power grid and the Patriot missile defense system to counter missile attacks. Ukraine is also likely to acquire Bradley tanks from the United States to increase its ability to respond to further Russian aggression.
But far from laying down weapons, some observers foresee an escalation from Russia over the next few days. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned the public about a new mobilization effort by President Putin, but US defense officials seem skeptical.
Even without a significant winter escalation, expect more drone warfare in the coming months. Using anti-aircraft missiles would be an expensive endeavor, with some estimating seven times the cost.
The moratorium on action leaves U.S. policymakers speculating in the midst of a congressional battle for the presidency. Putin loves games. In fact, he sent a Russian warship armed with hypersonic missiles into the Atlantic.
US and Ukrainian officials have made it clear that Russia’s ceasefire talks are just talk. Diplomats only hope to find the enemy of this war, but it is unlikely that one side will decide to lay down their weapons.
But there are scenarios that suggest that ending this war soon could put Ukraine in a better position to negotiate given its recent military achievements. A recent study by the Rand Corporation commissioned by the Department of Defense evaluated U.S. options for responding to various hypothetical scenarios, including a direct Russian attack on a NATO ally such as Poland or the use of nuclear weapons. Such a horrifying possibility encourages those who want Ukraine and Russia to come to the negotiating table.
Despite early predictions that Russia would soon destroy Ukraine, so far Zelensky has shown no interest in a ceasefire or a diplomatic solution to the war.
War is fog. Competing narratives are still emerging from parts of Ukraine, such as Bakhmut, where Ukrainian forces are trying to push Russian forces out of the disputed city.
The ceasefire is also foggy. Monitoring the cessation of hostilities is an art in itself. And a flawed ceasefire could further increase mistrust among the warring parties.
This latest Russian offer doesn’t look anything but genuine or promising. On the contrary, it creates false hopes and unnecessary chatter. To achieve true peace, both sides must see the value in abandoning their swords and turning them into the equivalent of plowshares.
One of the things we should expect in the next few days is the resolution of the congressional battles here in the country. It would be wise to set up and run an association.
Tara D. Sonnen Shine Former U.S. Under Secretary of State for Public Affairs and current Edward R. Murrow Professor of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.
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