[ad_1]
Minneapolis
CNN
—
A key barometer of economic health continues to show warning signs of a recession, suggesting a US recession is on the horizon in the near future. A growing number of his business leaders agree that the US economy is deteriorating.
In any case, the United States is not officially in recession, but the Conference Board’s leading economic index fell for the 10th straight month, dropping 1% to 110.5 in December, a business think tank said Monday. According to a report published in Economists had expected a 0.7% decline, according to Refinitiv.
On average, the index peaks about a year before a recession, according to The Conference Board. The index looks like he peaked in February 2022, the conference committee noted.
“December’s key indicators were broadly weak, with conditions in the labor market, manufacturing, housing construction and financial markets worsening in the coming months,” said Ataman Ozildirim, Senior Director of Economics at The Conference Board, in a statement. It shows to do,” he said.
Seven of the ten components of the index fell in December, according to the report, and the LEI’s trajectory continues to point to recession.
“Overall economic activity is likely to turn negative in the coming quarters before picking up again in the final quarter of 2023,” Ozyildirim said.
The official arbiter of a recession is the National Bureau’s Commission of Economic Research Economists, which takes into account a range of economic indicators before making decisions.
But about 52% of economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics believe the U.S. is 50 to 50 times more likely to go into a recession this year, according to the latest business outlook released Monday morning by NABE. A survey revealed.
“For the first time since 2020, more respondents expect their companies to have fewer jobs in the next three months, rather than more,” NABE President Julie Coronado said in the report. “Fewer respondents than in recent years expect their companies to increase their capital expenditures over the same period.”
US economic activity has shown signs of slowing in recent months as the Federal Reserve unleashed a barrage of rate hikes to keep inflation in check.
Federal Reserve officials have said progress has been made on inflation, but restrictive monetary policy and future rate hikes remain in place.
The Fed’s interest rate-setting committee’s next two-day meeting will begin on Jan. 31, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Prior to that meeting, the Fed will confirm additional economic data.
[ad_2]
Source link
