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Everyone in the mortgage and real estate industry is well aware of the market changes we have experienced in 2022. Most, if not all, would describe the first half of 2022 and the second half of 2022 as two very different markets.
The first half of the year saw record low inventories and high buyer demand due to low interest rates. This was quickly followed by rising interest rates and a market slowdown in the second half of the year.
By looking at Altos Research Data and HW Media’s latest event, The HousingWire December Forecast (for HW+ members and HW Media clients only), we help our clients understand the ever-changing market and see what we can expect. help. Year 2023. Data can change from week to week or day to day, so it’s important to understand how to plan for the future. Market changes can happen quickly, as we saw with the COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent market changes in 2022.
Altos Research President Mike Simonsen joined HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami at the Housing Forecasts event to show current changes and what’s happening in real time with leading indicators. We discussed how to make predictions for the future. Both agree that his two biggest housing metrics slated for 2023 will be mortgage rates and home inventory.
As a marketer in the housing industry, in-depth knowledge of mortgage rates and inventories is essential to inform your marketing strategy. A good marketer is agile and able to pivot in response to these metrics and determine how they shape the market. The data for the end of 2022 show a decline in inventories, but we can look to the leading indicators in the data to point to a positive trend for 2023.
Mohtashami indicated that the market began to see changes last fall when mortgage rates peaked above 7%. In November, rates began to fall by 1.25% from his 30th to 90th day purchase application growth, his seventh consecutive week of positive trends. An experienced marketer understands that purchase requisition data is a future prediction of market direction, and he should pay attention to this data his point. According to Mohtashami, these trends indicate that the market has stabilized and most of these leading indicators have occurred in the last few weeks.
You can also look at data trends in current market stocks to predict a bright spot in spring stocks. Simonsen noted that a closer look at available inventory data parallels purchase requisition data. “We’ve seen inventory build up throughout the year. It’s just a matter of how much,” says Simonsen. He also pointed out that the current data is normal as stocks are usually low at the end of the year due to holidays.
It’s also important to note that in 2022, the market had to be balanced, which was done by the Federal Reserve, and it was a tough one. This balancing act should be watched closely due to the fact that the change happened so quickly, Mohtashami added, adding that sellers have too much power and that a healthy property market must return. He said he was 100% right about the Federal Reserve’s actions because it wouldn’t be. By the end of 2022, we are starting to see some positive signs in this shift, with mortgage rates staying above his 6% level.
Understanding the market and the changes we are going through is important for every marketer in the industry.
Tracking the data and understanding these sources is also important and should be used as a tool to ease anxiety about how healthy the market perceives it to be.I am a marketer in this industry We can start interpreting the data and make informed decisions based on future data. This helps with strategy and end goals in a real estate market that seems to be constantly changing.
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