Cipher Short Squeeze

The cipher goes vertical and goes back vertical as you type…bounces back as you edit.

what’s going on?

There are four possibilities.

1. I’ve seen the bottom of the code.
2. Evil things come like this.
3. short squeeze.
4. US debt ceiling.

Let’s look at each.

1. Bottom

DCG and Gemini confused, under 600,000 spotlights Bitcoin

Bitcoin
Within the grayscale, who owes billions of people to whom and how much unsolved debt, two of the top 10 US cryptocurrency players and regulators are raging Combining the circumstances, how could this be the bottom? The counter-argument is classic: it’s already included in the price.

2. Evil things come like this

For me the second peak before Bitcoin’s double top was caused by Afghanistan and the withdrawal of the US to prepare for an invasion of Ukraine. corrupt officials heading to airports with bags of money was key to that surge. It is not hard to imagine that he was cursing. Without that emergency, the top of the bubble would have been his $40,000, and the next crash would have put him back around $15,000 last week, without a detour to $60,000.

A sudden rise could therefore become a geopolitical emergency. Massive Russian pressure on Ukraine, regime change in Russia, massive escalation with Russia, and worse, Chinese invasion of Taiwan. There will always be North Korea who will screw it up.

Let’s hope not. If you look at U.S. military contractors, they’re not going through the roof.

3. Short squeeze

Exchanges that often sink FTX or “bucket shop” are shorting on the assumption that customer positions will fall and they will make a profit when they fall. Imagine a cryptocurrency exchange that sells depositor cryptocurrencies for stablecoins. When the market goes down, you make a big profit on the fall in value. Now suppose the regulator starts breathing from the neck. They may then desperately try to cover that short, holding the depositor’s cryptocurrency with the cryptocurrency they thought the customer had. It creates a powerful short squeeze. This is my current favorite explanation.

4. The US debt ceiling is coming.

Apparently, the U.S. Treasury Department thinks the mandatory government debt ceiling will be reached in a matter of days and has put in place a number of funky mechanisms to stop the U.S. from defaulting on its debt. These huge stashes could last until June before the government runs out of money to pay the bills. It flowed into the Fed’s “reverse repo” system. As far as we know, this will continue into the new year. Is this liquidity pouring into the system used by the US Treasury in case the debt ceiling vote turns into complete chaos as it did last time? Now that things have changed, raising the debt ceiling could also be a disaster, so it’s best to get liquidity into the system now.

Once the money is flushed, the system goes to assets, especially stocks and the bubbly bubble asset class, namely Bitcoin and all other crypto assets. It’s also a good guess as to what’s driving cryptocurrencies and markets soaring.

Can the market instead predict the return of happy days? Not impossible, but unlikely. For 3 or 4, this is short-lived. If it’s 2 or especially 1, it’s up, up and away.

In the meantime, I haven’t been playing around with these train tracks, so I’ve taken this opportunity to sort out some loose crypto and turn it into a stablecoin.