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Jan 23 (Reuters) – The chance that the United States is already in a recession or will be in a recession this year has fallen to 56% over the past three months. Monday.
Nearly 53% of respondents surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) expect the US to enter a recession within the next 12 months, and 3% believe the US is already in recession. I replied that I was thinking about it. .
In the last NABE poll, released in October, 64% of respondents said the U.S. economy is already in recession or likely to enter one within the next 12 months. .
The latest survey, conducted from January 4 to 11, was answered by 60 NABE members working for private companies and industry associations.
The poll also shows that respondents expect inflation to moderate within their businesses and industries, with an indicator of future outlook for prices charged down 10 percentage points from the previous survey, expected to drop by 2020. It was the lowest value since October.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point between January 31st and February 31st. 1st policy meeting as high inflation is waning and we are nearing the stopping point of the rate hike cycle.
Last year, the US central bank hiked interest rates at its fastest rate since the early 1980s in an attempt to quell inflation at its 40-year high. Inflation remains nearly three times the central bank’s 2% target, based on the Fed’s recommended metrics.
Recent economic data show that inflation continues to fall, and growth in consumer and producer prices, profits and wages are all slowing, making it possible to bring inflation down without triggering a recession. I have high hopes that it will be possible.
Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir.Editing by Paul Simao
Our Standards: Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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