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Ahead of Sunday’s showdown between the Bengals and Chiefs, bettors have seen big moves in early betting on the AFC Championship line.
Since Sunday night’s opening numbers were published by SI Sportsbook, Cincinnati has gone from being a 1.5-point underdog to a 1.5-point road favorite. There are many reasons for dramatic change, but nothing beats the circumstances. Patrick Mahomesinjured ankle.
of bengals When Chiefs They will play in the AFC Championship Game for the second year in a row. Last season, Cincinnati beat Kansas City 27-24 in his 7-point win over Moneyline bettors at +255 odds as a favorite. The question for bettors this time around is whether Mahomes can play at his elite level despite his ankle injury.
Joe Burrow After Cincinnati’s 27-10 upset, it improved to 5-1 (83.3%) straight up (SU) and reverse spread (ATS) in the playoff game. bill As a 6-point road underdog in last week’s divisional round. The Bengals extend their winning streak to 10 games by winning the bettors at +220 moneyline odds, and for the second year in a row he returns to Arrowhead in his bid to become the AFC champion.
The Bengals have posted a very profitable 8-1-1 ATS mark for bettors during this 10-game winning streak. Burrow, who is finishing his 3-0 in SU and ATS in his three games with Mahomes, is heading to Arrowhead Stadium for the first time. liked For the second time in his six-year career, he defeated a player likely to be on his way to league MVP honors. The two clubs met once this season, in Week 13, when Cincinnati won his 27-24 victory, leaving him a 2.5-point underdog at home.
AFC No. 1 seed Kansas City defeated AFC No. 4 seed Jacksonville 27-20 last Saturday. Andy Reid’s club rounded out the division as the biggest favorites in his round, the club’s 15th victory of the season once again leaving bettors out of profit. Kansas City slipped to his ATS of just 1-7-1 (12.5%) at Arrowhead Stadium, but against the overall numbers he fell to 5-12-1 (29.4%) .
The Chiefs have hosted an NFL-record five straight AFC title games and have won six in a row heading into a showdown with the Bengals, boasting an 11-1 record in their last 12 games. However, the Bengals are 7-1 for SU and 6-2 for ATS in their last eight meetings against the Chiefs dating back to 2008.
Ahead of Sunday’s championship, respected money tips from Las Vegas info helped SI betting The community has gone 9-4 on player proposition bets and 6-1 on teaser investments since week 18!
Information has increased by 6.6 units in the NFL playoffs, leaving a +12.65 unit profit for the season in NFL betting here. sports illustrated.
Jump into the AFC Championship!
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship Game Odds
- expansion: Cincinnati -1.5 (-110) | Kansas City +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Singh (-125) | KC (+105)
- total: 46.5 – Above (-110) | Under (-110)
- Percentage of public (spread) bets: Shin 86% | KC 14%
- Game information: January 29, 2023 | 6:30 PM ET | CBS
Bengals Straight Up Record: 14-4
Bengals Against The Spread Records: 13-4-1
Chief straight-up record: 15-3
Chiefs Against the Spread Records: 5-12-1
Bet on Bengals-Chiefs at SI Sportsbook
Odds and betting insights
Cincinnati Offense vs. Kansas City Defense
Burrow Flourishes vs. Chiefs
The Bengals finished the regular season with the league’s fifth-best passing offense (265 yards per game) and found a winning matchup against a Chiefs defense that surrendered a total of 38 touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. I was.
After limitation Trevor Lawrence After just one touchdown pass last week, Kansas City has only allowed multiple touchdown passes in three of its last eight games.
But can the club slow the pace of Burrow, who has dominated the team in three meetings over the past two seasons? He threw 2 touchdowns and added 1 rushing score in 3 matches.
– Produced by Mixon in Division Rounds
Joe Mixon It exploded in the second 100-plus-yard rushing game of the season in a win over Buffalo. The versatile back, who averaged 38 rushing yards in his previous four games with his yardage heading into the division his round, ran for his game-high 105 yards while adding a touchdown.
Mixon rushed for 183 yards and grabbed 68 yards on 13 receptions in three games with the Chiefs. The veteran back did not clear concussion protocol for the Week 13 game. This made Samaje Perrine shine. A backup tailback he rushed for 106 yards and for 49 yards he caught six receptions.
– Chase keeps shining
Jamal Chasehas scored nine touchdowns in his last nine games, his best form since returning from a hip injury earlier this season. A star of his wideout, in his three games with the Chiefs he had 25 receptions for 417 yards and four touchdowns. In six career playoff games, Chase was dynamic by averaging 6.5 receptions, 85.5 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns per reception, while his “anytime” at odds of -105. A touchdown’ market makes a player’s proposition a prime target for his bettors.
Kansas City Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
– How healthy is Mahomes?
Mahomes has led the best passing offense in the NFL, averaging 297.8 yards per game, but will his injured ankle deter him from his usual prodigious performances?
Star Signal Caller, who had a 40-10 record (80%) in the regular season and made the playoffs in his Arrowhead career, passed 229.1 yards per game in the face of the 23rd-ranked Bengals’ pass defense. Make it possible. Mahomes had just 223 passing yards and one touchdown in a regular season matchup. However, he was able to add a rushing score from three yards off the ground.
The 2022 NFL MVP front-runner has a sensational postseason record of 9-3. He averaged 298 passing yards and 27.6 rushing yards, threw 30 touchdowns and added five rushing yards to his score.
– Can Kansas City’s run game lead the way?
Kansas City was 20th in the running game (115.9 yards per game), ahead of Isaiah Pacheco. Jerrick McKinnon It becomes an essential element of the offense.
Pacheco, who shined in his first playoff game with 95 rushing yards and 1 touchdown, was successful in his first game against the Bengals with 82 total yards and 1 touchdown.
While the rookie has taken over the Berkau job on the ground, the veteran McKinnon has scored eight receiving touchdowns in his last seven games thanks to becoming one of Mahomes’ top weapons in aerial offense. McKinnon gained 51 yards on the ground, had two receptions for 9 yards, and scored one touchdown in the first matchup.
The experienced tailback, who has zero receiving yards in the last two games, will need to show off his pass-catching skills against a Bengals defense that allows running backs 4.61 receptions per game.
– Which Kelth will spawn?
Chiefs offense works at peak level when Reid’s plans rely heavily on Travis KelceThe star tight end, who led the Chiefs in regular-season targets (152), receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338) and touchdowns (12), dominated last week’s game against the Jaguars with a game-high 14 receptions. Earned. 98 yards and two touchdowns.
In the Week 13 meeting, Kelce gained 56 yards on just four receptions. In his five games with Cincinnati (including the playoffs), the veteran said he averaged only 64 receiving yards per game, and found the end his zone only twice.
Kelse, on the other hand, is a postseason star, averaging 86.8 receiving yards and scoring 14 touchdowns in 16 playoff games. In four AFC title games, the league’s best tight end averaged 7.3 receptions and added four touchdowns.
The player proposition bettor must decide which Kelce will appear. Kelse, who has modest numbers against the Bengals, or is he an elite player who dominates the postseason?
Cincinnati vs Kansas City Best Bets
Mahomes, who is 9-3 in the playoffs, had heard all week that he had never beaten Burrow in his three meetings. At home he wins 80% of the clip, which, combined with his ATS record of 7-1-1, makes him invest in the positive odds offered at Moneyline as an underdog.
With the whole world in favor of a red-hot Burrow vs. a stumbling Mahomes, sportsbooks may be heading towards their biggest responsibility of the NFL season. Meeting the needs of the house while opposing is often an advantage. Simply upholding that angle could secure the No. 1 seed with 8 wins and 1 loss at home this season.
Best bet: Kansas City Moneyline (+105)
trend
- The Bengals are 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
- Kansas City is an 8-1 SU, but the ATS at home is 1-7-1 this season.
- Cincinnati is 7-1 for SU and 6-2 for ATS in its last eight meetings with the Chiefs.
- Burrow is 3-0 SU and ATS in his career against Mahomes.
- Burrow is 5-1 SU and ATS in 6 career playoff games
- Mahomes is a 7-1-1 ATS in his underdog career
- Kansas City is 6-3 in the ATS in its last 9 home playoff games.
- The Under are 6-1 in Kansas City’s last seven home games.
- Under is 6-3-1 in Cincinnati’s 10 road games this season
Respected Money NFL in 2022 SI betting: 43-36-1 ATS + Prop +12.65 U
Respected Money NFL in 2021 SI betting: 33-27-1 ATS + Prop +9.75 U
Respected Money NFL in 2021 SI betting: 53-44-1 ATS + Prop +14.22 U
Respected Money NFL at SI betting in 2020: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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