5 big political issues for 2023

Politicians face a mountain of unknowns over the next year, including whether President Joe Biden will seek a second term. There are other cliffhangers, including whether former President Donald Trump will be indicted and whether Rep. Kevin McCarthy will be elected Speaker of the House. Here are five developments from him that I’m keeping an eye on that could shake up the political landscape.

Will the U.S. government default on its debt?

The federal government is expected to reach its borrowing limit within the next year. If Congress can’t raise the debt ceiling as it regularly does, the federal government could default on its debt for the first time in history, and many economists believe the event represents an imminent crisis for financial markets. said to cause

it really can happen. With Republicans in control of the House, Republicans are talking hard about using the need to raise limits to force policy changes. But the real problem isn’t the potential breakdown of negotiations. That is, many House Republicans won’t vote to raise the debt ceiling, regardless of the circumstances. Hmm.

There will almost certainly be a bipartisan House majority in favor of an unconditional raise. But it’s not clear whether the majority party will decide what to vote for and whether Republican speakers will allow it. It is generally a safe bet that something happens in Congress that requires

Will the Republican House impeach Biden?

If the 2022 election went well, House Republicans would most likely have pushed for the impeachment of Biden. wants to clear some of the stigma of his two impeachments, and he has many friends in the House. Besides, within the Republican Party, it’s hard to say no to Democrat bashing, and there’s always someone around.

Impeaching Mr. Biden would require the cooperation of nearly all Republicans in the House, and the prospects are uncertain. But even if that attempt was destined to fail in the House, there are plenty of Republicans who want the impeachment vote to go on record.

Unlike government defaults, the impact is largely symbolic. But symbolic damage to the constitutional order is a problem, and the distraction of the White House and Congress from governing also comes with very real costs.

You’ll notice I didn’t say anything about the grounds for impeachment. This is for no good reason, but it probably doesn’t matter to the Republicans leading this issue.

Will Republican recruitment in the races that matter do better than in 2022?

This will be a big problem in 2023. Odd-numbered years are a time of mass recruitment for Senate and gubernatorial elections. In 2021, the Republican Party suffered setback after setback as seemingly strong candidates such as New Hampshire Gov. Chris Snunu and Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey chose not to challenge incumbent Democratic senators. rice field. The result was a historically weak group of candidates.

It’s not clear if the Republican Party is fixing what’s broken. Prospective candidates may still be intimidated by the prospect of Trump supporters with questionable credentials gaining an edge in party primaries. And politicians interested in formulating conservative public policy may not yet believe that it is possible with a party that values ​​anger over substance.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, that doesn’t bode well for Republicans, as defeated gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano has already shared polls for the 2024 Senate election (clearly fake).

Will Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor retire?

After the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg during President Trump’s presidency, Democrats have come to recognize the benefits of strategically retiring from the Supreme Court. Even Sonia Sotomayor, 68, and her 62-year-old Elena Kagan are urged to step down amid a Democratic majority in the White House and a Democratic majority in the Senate, neither of which is guaranteed after 2024. Some are starting to encourage it.

Even if Biden or another Democrat becomes president in 2025, Republicans have made it pretty clear that they will refuse to bring any Democratic candidate to the House of Representatives. The Republican-controlled Senate is the last to confirm a Supreme Court justice appointed by a Democrat in the 19th century.

And with the Senate map so favorable in this cycle, Republicans stand to win two seats (and a Senate majority), even if it’s an overall decent year for the Democrats. It is not hard to imagine that it will take the Democrats 12 years or more to regain control of the president and the Senate.

Justice Clarence Thomas chose not to retire when Republicans unified control. He’ll be 75 in his June, but he could certainly be by the time Republicans in the White House next get to endorse a similarly conservative candidate. . But judges aged 65 and over run a real risk of jeopardizing the principles they fought for if they do not retire strategically. Sotomayor has to make her decision and the Democrats are going to make sure she knows what her stake will be.

Will the election results affect the Supreme Court?

The current courts have more than a very conservative majority. As we have seen in several decisions, especially his Dobbs decision that overturned his Roe v. Wade decision, it is an aggressive court seeking to influence public policy.

Supreme Court Justices are tenured and do not have to worry about the next election. But party actors worry about such things. And these days, all Supreme Court justices are acting like partisans. Concerns over electoral implications may be why Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts has acted less aggressively than other conservatives in many cases involving Dobbs. After the abortion decision was credited with helping Democrats in the midterm elections, the question is whether one or more conservative justices will soften their approach.

Republicans in general might find the trade-off—a drastic abortion decision in exchange for one disappointing midterm election—to be worth it. Still, Mr. Roberts may find allies among judges who would rather have conservative results in increments than drastic decisions like Mr. Dobbs. With several key decisions expected in the coming months, including legislative power over elections, affirmative action, and environmental regulation, the consequences of choosing between gradualism and grabbing what you can quickly will be enormous. can grow to

Jonathan Bernstein Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics and policy. A former professor of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio and DePauw University, he wrote a plain-language blog about politics. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial board or Bloomberg’s LP and its owners.

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